Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan risks sectarian clashes when he announces whether he will seek election: in the Muslim north if he does, and in his native oil- rich Niger River delta in the south if he doesn’t. Unrest in the delta may jeopardize oil output in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest producer and the fifth-largest source of crude to the U.S. At least 14,000 people have died in ethnic and religious violence since 1999, according to the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
“Jonathan’s delta constituency could interpret even a voluntary decision not to run as a concerted northern attempt to block him, and this could spark unrest,” said Rolake Akinola, an analyst at New York-based Eurasia Group.
